By Stan Smith
The website Moneypuck.com has released its predictions for each NHL team for the 2022/23 season. Today, we will go through each Atlantic Division team and see where they rank for the regular season, making the playoffs, winning each round, and winning the Stanley Cup.
Moneypuck differs from most betting sites as they don’t base their predictions on how they figure people will bet. They use performance-based algorithms to come up with their determinations. Anyone who wishes to see the details of how they arrive at their predictions can do so here: https://www.moneypuck.com/about.htm
Final Regular Season Standings and Chances of Making the Playoffs.
| Team | Regular Season Points | Chances of Making Playoffs |
| Florida Panthers | 106.7 | 87.9% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 106.4 | 86.3% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 101 | 76.3% |
| Boston Bruins | 100.7 | 76.1% |
| Ottawa Senators | 85 | 27.7% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 84.6 | 27.0% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 80.1 | 16.7% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 72.6 | 6.5% |
We can see here where the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs are predicted to be in a virtual tie for regular season points, only separated by 0.3 points. The Panthers have the edge in making the playoffs by 1.6%.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins are similarly in a virtual tie for third and for their odds of making the postseason.
There is still a huge drop from fourth to fifth place, with the Ottawa Senators and the Detroit Red Wings in a close battle for that position but still well out of a playoff spot, and with only a 27% chance of making it past the regular season.
The Buffalo Sabres and the Montreal Canadiens bring up the rear in the Atlantic Division.
The one caveat we have to mention is that these results are based heavily on past performance. They are based on numbers and don’t take into account the intangibles of the offseason moves that were made by each team as they would be impossible to measure.
The two teams with the best chances to make the playoffs according to Moneypuck are the Colorado Avalanche (91.1%) and the Calgary Flames (88.5%). These predictions don’t only take into account how good those teams are but also the disparity between teams in those divisions.
Chances of Making it Past the First Round
| Team | Odds of Winning Round 1 |
| Panthers | 49.2% |
| Maple Leafs | 47.6% |
| Lightning | 37.6% |
| Bruins | 37.6% |
| Senators | 11.2% |
| Red Wings | 11.1% |
| Sabres | 6.5% |
| Canadiens | 2.5% |
Chances of Making it to the Conference Final
| Team | Odds of Making Conf Final |
| Panthers | 26.1% |
| Maple Leafs | 25.6% |
| Lightning | 18.5% |
| Bruins | 18.2% |
| Senators | 5.0% |
| Red Wings | 4.9% |
| Sabres | 2.8% |
| Canadiens | 1.0% |
Chances of Making the Stanley Cup Final
| Team | Odds of Making Cup Final |
| Panthers | 13.8% |
| Maple Leafs | 13.6% |
| Lightning | 9.5% |
| Bruins | 9.1% |
| Senators | 2.3% |
| Red Wings | 2.3% |
| Sabres | 1.3% |
| Canadiens | 0.5% |
Chances of Winning Stanley Cup
| Team | Odds of Winning Cup |
| Panthers | 7.3% |
| Maple Leafs | 7.3% |
| Lightning | 4.7% |
| Bruins | 4.5% |
| Senators | 1.1% |
| Red Wings | 1.1% |
| Sabres | 0.6% |
| Canadiens | 0.2% |
Florida and Toronto
We see with the Panthers and the Maple Leafs that Florida has a 1.6% better chance of getting past the first round. But, that advantage diminishes as the playoffs progress, from 0.5% of making it to the Conference Final to 0.2% of making it to the Stanley Cup Final, to being tied for odds of winning the Stanley Cup.
Tampa and Boston
While these two teams are tied in their chances of making it past the first round, the Lightning have the better chance of winning each round and winning the Stanley Cup after that.
Ottawa and Detroit.
The fact that these two teams are longshots to make the postseason, as with all predictions there is still a chance the predictions are wrong and these teams do have a chance at winning playoff rounds and possibly the Stanley Cup. With the Senators and the Sabres their chances are virtually identical all the way through the playoffs.
Buffalo and Montreal
Moneypuck predicts this will not be a good season for either the Sabres or the Canadiens. On the other hand, we are sure when the odds of winning the first draft pick in 2023 are put out, both these franchises should be right up there.
Odds on Favorite to Win the Stanley Cup
For those of you who are interested Moneypuck gives the Calgary Flames the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup at 8.3% followed closely by the Florida Panthers at 8.0%
All of their predictions for the 2022/23 season are here https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm