The Toronto Maple Leafs recently went through what many hockey analysts believe to be a successful arbitration process with last season’s starting goalie Ilya Samsonov. Ultimately, the results of the arbitration ruling settled on a one-year deal worth $3.55 million.

While this deal might seem like a win for the team financially, it also raises some interesting questions about Samsonov’s future in Toronto.

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What Might the Problem with This Contract Be?

On one hand, this short-term contract allows Samsonov to prove his worth as a consistent NHL goalie. If he does, the result for him is simple. He’ll probably be able to sign a more lucrative contract during the 2024 NHL offseason. However, it also sets the stage for a potential dilemma for the Maple Leafs.

If he doesn’t play well, the Maple Leafs might allow him to walk into free agency. Who knows right now what the season might bring?

Ilya Samsonov, Maple Leafs starting goalie

But, what if Samsonov has a stellar season? He’d then, likely, become a highly sought-after free agent. Certainly, the Maple Leafs would covet his services and hope to re-sign him. But so would many other NHL teams.

The challenge for the Maple Leafs lies in their salary cap situation. Next season, similar to this season, they will face salary cap constraints. With a number of the team’s key players entering free agency (William Nylander, specifically) and Mitch Marner up for a contract extension, fitting Samsonov’s potential new contract under the cap could be tricky.

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If Samsonov Has an Amazing Season, Watch Out

If Samsonov plays exceptionally well, he’d likely have the upper hand in contract negotiations. That could put the Maple Leafs in a tough spot. How would Samsonov remember the arbitration experience? Does he really want to stay in Toronto, where he’s grown into a star goalie?

There are a lot of questions that remain to be answered.

While the current contract benefits the Maple Leafs in the short term, it also carries with it a potential longer-term problem. If Samsonov excels this season, the team might have difficulty re-signing him and managing their salary cap effectively.

The Bottom Line

The Maple Leafs’ brain trust will need to make wise decisions to ensure their sustained success and navigate the complex financial landscape of the NHL. In the meantime, Maple Leafs fans – for now, at least – have a different perspective.

Go on, Ilya Samsonov. Become a star. We are all rooting for you to help finally carry this team to the Stanley Cup championship.

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