By Stan Smith
The Toronto Maple Leafs might have won this game; but, they could have ultimately lost big time.
The Ugly
The Ugly part of this game was watching rookie sensation Joseph Woll being carried off the ice in pain. After making an awkward but seemingly innocuous save midway through the third period, it was easy to tell something was wrong with Woll the way he immediately reacted. It did not look like the type of play that would usually injure a goaltender.
I can’t help but wonder if was more an accumulation of the types of acrobatic saves Woll was forced to make that may have ultimately led to his injury. A body can only take so much. I cannot remember a game when I have seen so many opposing players get in alone on a Maple Leaf goaltender.
Hopefully, the injury is not as bad as it looked and Woll won’t miss a lot of time.
Related: So Where Exactly Is the Maple Leafs’ Robidas Island?
The Good
This game could be put in a hockey dictionary and used to define “Timely Scoring.” Despite the numerous defensive breakdowns, the Maple Leafs got the goals when they needed it. Mitch Marner ties the game up on a breakaway. David Kampf puts the Maple Leafs up a goal on a jam play. Calle Jarnkrok scores a nice goal off the rush to put the Maple Leafs up 3-1.
Then, after the Senators close to within one goal, William Nylander scores what would eventually be the game-winner. After that, it is kitty-bar-the-door and hold on, including a late penalty kill to finish the game.
I criticized the Maple Leafs for not producing in a game they lost despite severely outplaying the other team. At that time, I stated that if you don’t finish all that effort is wasted. I guess I now have to compliment them when the shoe (skate?) is on the other foot. Regardless of how one-sided the play looked by the eye test and statistical data, the Maple Leafs won the game.
Goaltending
Despite missing the last half of the last period, Woll did enough to get awarded the first star of the game. He stopped 29 of the 31 shots he faced and robbed numerous Senator players of what appeared to be sure goals. On one of the two goals Woll gave up, he was inadvertently interfered with by his own player. Martin Jones came in cold and stopped nine of ten shots, including some dangerous chances. The only goal Jones allowed he had no chance on.
Domi, Robertson, and Jarnkrok
The Max Domi, Nick Robertson, and Jarnkrok line scored another big goal on a tic-tac-toe rush. The line did not start the game together. In the first period, head coach Sheldon Keefe swapped Jarnkrok with Ryan Reaves. He put Jarnkrok with Kampf and Noah Gregor, and Reaves with Domi and Robertson. As the game progressed and Reaves found his usual spot on the bench, Jarnkrok split his duties between the two lines.
Conor Timmins
After missing the first 17 games of the season with an injury, Conor Timmins struggled back in his first three games. That is understandable. In Toronto’s 4-3 win over Seattle, Timmins started to find his game. He’s shown improvement in each game since.
Timmins was rewarded for his play with a promotion to the second pairing alongside Jake McCabe. He played 18:29 in the game and was statistically the best defenseman on the ice for the Maple Leafs. He led the D-core with 74% of the five-on-five Scoring Chances, 63% of the High-Danger Scoring Chances, and 53% of the Expected Goals.
Related: Maple Leafs’ Joseph Woll’s Injury Sparks “Now What?” Question
The Bad
How one-sided was this game? Looking at it Old School, the shots were 41-22 Ottawa. The only close period was the second when the shots were 8-5 Senators. Ottawa owned the first period with 16-8 shots and the third period with 17-9 shots.
Analytically, according to Naturalstattrick.com, the Senators had 69% of the Expected Goals in the first period and 77% in the third period. In those two periods combined, Ottawa had 12 High-Danger Scoring Chances to Toronto’s three. In the second period, which was the Maple Leafs’ best, Toronto had four High-Danger Chances to Ottawa’s three. The Maple Leafs also had 56% of the Expected Goals in the middle stanza.
If we look at the five-on-five individual statistics, it paints a worse picture for the Maple Leafs. Only two of the 18 skaters were on the ice for more High-Danger Scoring Chances For than Against. Nick Robertson was on for one chance for and none against. Conor Timmins was on for five High Danger Chances For and three Against. Max Lajoie, in only his second game for the Maple Leafs this season, was on for one High-Danger Chance For and one Against. The other 15 skaters were all on the ice for more High-Danger Chances Against than For.
Expected Goals paints a similar picture. Robertson (99%), Max Domi (59%), and Timmins (53%) were the only three skaters on the positive side of the ledger for the Maple Leafs.
What’s Next?
After playing just 8 games in 26 days, partially due to a trip to Sweden to play two games, the Maple Leafs will play five games in eight days. They start with a home game versus the Nashville Predators on Saturday night. Nashville is 14-12 on the season and is fighting to stay in the last wildcard spot in the West. The Preds have won their last three games including a 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night.
The Maple Leafs then play four games next week, including back-to-back in the Big Apple as they pay a visit to the New York Islanders on Monday night before venturing into Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Rangers on Tuesday. They finish the week at home on Thursday against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Then, on Saturday they take on the Pittsburgh Penguins.
With Woll out and Ilya Samsonov seemingly on the mend from whatever ailed him this past week, it is going to be up to Samsonov and Martin Jones to backstop the Maple Leafs. This upcoming week could be important. The Maple Leafs sit in a wildcard spot two points back of Detroit and Florida who are tied for second in the Atlantic with 32 points.
But, Toronto has two games in hand over both those teams. The Maple Leafs are one point up on both the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa with three games in hand over each of them. With the tight schedule coming up, Toronto will be using up some of those games in hand.
Despite all of the ups and downs the Maple Leafs have had so far this season, they have put together a record of 7-1-2 in their past ten games. Not so bad.