By Stan Smith

Will the real Toronto Maple Leafs please stand up?

The Maple Leafs just played two games that were the opposites. Thursday night, they played one of their sloppiest games of the season but pulled out the win against the Ottawa Senators because of stellar goaltending by Joseph Woll and a baseball-like save from Martin Jones. They came back Saturday night with one of their tightest games of the season and shut out the Nashville Predators 4-0.

How different were those games? According to Naturalstattrick.com, in Ottawa, the Maple Leafs could only muster seven High-Danger Scoring Chances to 16 for the Senators.  Despite outscoring Ottawa 4-3, Toronto only had 32% of the Expected Goals compared to 68% for the Senators. By the eye test, the two Toronto goalies saw more Red, White, and Black jerseys in front of them than they did Bue and White.

On Saturday night in Toronto, it was the Maple Leafs who had 17 High-Danger Scoring Chances to just six for the Predators. The Maple Leafs also had 73% of the Expected Goals to just 27% by Nashville. 

Related: Marlies Midweek Report: Exciting Win Vs. Griffins 

The Good

This was by far the most complete, four-line game the Maple Leafs have played this season. If we break down the shots on the net by the forward lines, we see that the fourth line had eight shots, the first line had eight shots, the third line had seven shots, and the second line had nine shots.  

According to Naturalstattrick.com, at five-on-five hockey, 16 of the 18 skaters had 50% or more of the High-Danger Scoring Chances, and 15 skaters had Expected Goals of over 50%. Looking specifically at the High-Danger Scoring Chances Against, seven skaters did not have a single High-Danger Scoring Chances Against. Another six skaters were on the ice for just one High-Danger Scoring Chances Against. Only five skaters, three forwards, and two defensemen were on the ice for more than one High-Danger Scoring Chance.  

The Fourth Line

This was one of the season’s best games for the fourth line when Ryan Reaves was on the line. Reaves played 8:34 in this game and was a positive in every analytical category. By the eye test, he did turn the puck over once. However, overall he was more noticeable for the right reasons instead of the wrong ones. 

Reaves even had a play in the defensive zone where he rode an opposing player off the puck and kept the player tied up while a teammate came in and took control of the puck. Amazingly, he did it legally. Reaves also set Kampf up for a decent scoring play in the second period. I was not happy to see Reaves in the lineup, but I was impressed with his play. I still think the Maple Leafs need a better long-term answer for that roster spot but if Reaves keeps playing like he did in this game I won’t worry about it as much.

It Looked As If the Maple Leafs Would Once Again Squander Scoring Chances

In a game where the Maple Leafs were dominating but couldn’t get one by Predators’ goalie Kevin Lankinen for over half the game, it was starting to look like a game where the wasted scoring chances were going to come back to bite them. However, David Kampf finally lit the goal light. Kampf scored a goalscorer’s goal at 14:15 of the second period. On the play, he took a stretch pass up the middle from Conor Timmins, split the defence, and used his body to ward off Nashville defenseman Ryan McDonagh. He then went backhand, forehand, over Lankinen’s glove hand.  

Kampf came close to scoring a second goal 14 seconds later on the same shift. Altogether Kampf had five shots in the game, the most he has had in a game this season. After going goalless in his first 14 games of the season, Kampf has three goals in his past ten games. Two of these goals have come in his last two games. 

The quietest player on the fourth line in this game was Noah Gregor. Gregor did contribute though, scoring an empty net goal to quell any thoughts of the Predators building a comeback.

Matthews, Nylander, and Knies

Auston Matthews took over the rest of the scoring, potting the second and third Maple Leafs goals. William Nylander assisted on both goals. Matthews has 18 goals on the season, which places him second in goals in the league. That’s one behind Nikita Kucherov. He’s on pace to score 61 goals. Matthews is having a strange season when it comes to scoring goals. He has gone scoreless in 15 of the 24 games he has played. When he does score he scores in bunches. He has six multiple-goal games, three hat tricks, and three games with two goals. Matthews has only three games in which he has scored just one goal. 

Nylander Is Returning to Early Season Form and Playing Great Defence

Nylander’s two assists bring his points total to 32 in 24 games, a 109-point pace for the season. After going pointless in three consecutive games since returning from Sweden, Nylander is starting to pick up his scoring pace again, with five points in his last four games. 

I think we can finally lay to rest the notion that Nylander is weak defensively. On both goals, Matthews scored on plays started with Nylander earning the puck defensively in his own zone. On the first goal, the play starts with Nylander and John Tavares winning a puck battle deep in the Toronto zone. It finishes with Matthews tucking a perfect pass from Matthews behind Lankinen. On the second goal, Nylander hustles back to break up a Nashville three-on-two in the Toronto zone before heading up ice with the puck and hitting Matthews with a cross-ice pass. 

Matthews Knies didn’t figure into the scoring, but he did make an impact. Knies set a physical tone early, throwing two solid hits on his first shift of the game. Knies leads the Maple Leafs with 46 hits on the season.  

Related: Beneath The Surface: The Maple Leafs Best Player Is a Surprise

The Second Line Played Well

We had mentioned earlier that only five Maple Leafs’ players were on the ice for more than one High-Danger Scoring Chance at five-on-five. Three of those players were the players that comprise the second line, Tavares, Mitch Marner, and Tyler Bertuzzi. That might make someone looking at the stats think these guys had a bad game. There is one other factor to consider when making that assumption. 

The bulk of scoring for the Nashville Predators comes from one forward unit, the line of Ryan O’Reilly, Filip Forsberg, and Gustav Nyquist. Nashville was 9-2 in their previous 11 games coming into this contest. In those 11 games, Forsberg had ten goals, and the line had 40 points. Tavares’ line was tasked with defending against this line. They held them scoreless. 

Altogether the trio of Tavares, Marner, and Bertuzzi gave up a combined ten High-Danger Scoring Chances, but they also created a combined nine High-Danger Chances of their own. They won the Expected Goals battle slightly with 51.4% of the Expected Goals.  

Coach Keefe’s Use of Marner Is Against the Other Team’s Top Line

Sheldon Keefe usually has whatever line Marner is playing on face the other team’s top line. That was one of the reasons the top line struggled at times with Marner on it. They had the toughest defensive assignments. By moving Marner to the Tavares line, it now faces the opposing team’s best players, leaving the Matthews’ line more room to work to their offensive strengths. It might hurt Tavares and Marner’s production; but, if it leads to the Maple Leafs playing a sounder defensive game and getting more wins that is a sacrifice I am sure they are willing to give. 

Tavares did manage an assists on Matthews’ second goal to give him 998 points in his career.

The Defense

Quick test. Which Maple Leafs’ defenseman put up the best underlying numbers in the game including three High-Danger Scoring Chances For and zero against as well as an Expected Goals of 97%? The answer is Maxime Lajoie. Filling in for the ill William Lagesson, Lajoie played a sheltered third-pairing 14:57 but played it well. 

Conor Timmins impressed me once again, playing in the top four. He logged 19:11 of ice time, just 18 seconds less than TJ Brodie (19.29). That was also almost three minutes more than his defensive partner Jake McCabe. Part of that time was the 2:36 he played on the power play and 1:31 on the penalty kill. If Timmins can keep playing at the same level he has in the past two games, it can go a long way to solving the Maple Leafs’ defensive issues. That will be especially true once Timothy Liljegren and Mark Giordano return. 

Morgan Rielly and Brodie were the only two defensemen on the negative side of the ledger with a combined eight and nine in High-Danger Scoring Chances and a combined Expected Goals of 44%. But, like the Tavares line, Rielly and Brodie were tasked with facing the Predator’s top line of Forsberg, O’Reilly, and Nyquist. Rielly was the only defenseman to play over 20 minutes, logging a total of 26:08. 

Timmns and Rielly each had an assist in the game. 

Ilya Samsonov

This was exactly what the doctor ordered when it came to Ilya Samsonov. In this game, the team plays solid defense in front of him, limiting the dangerous scoring chances, and allowing him to settle in and play a successful game. Samsonov didn’t have to make many saves facing only 18 shots, and Nashville only had six High-Danger Scoring Chances.

But, Samsonov made all the saves he needed to make to record his first shutout of the season and the 11th of his career. His save percentage is trending towards the .900 mark and sits at 0.886% while his Goals Against Average (GAA) is trending down towards the 3.00 mark at 3.21 GAA. What is more significant is Samsonov’s won/lost record, which sits at 5-1-3.  He has yet to lose a game at home this season, going 4-0 at Scotiabank Place. 

The Bad

It is difficult to come up with anything bad in this game. If I wanted to focus on anything it would be their power play. Before they finally cashed in with the man advantage at 16:49 of the third period, the Maple Leafs had gone 0-4 with the extra man in the game. The outcome of the game remained in question until late in the third period. If the power play had come through earlier in the game they could have put it away much sooner than they did. 

The Ugly

I got nothing. 

What’s Next?

The Maple Leafs head to New York to take on the Islanders on Monday night and the Rangers on Tuesday night. It would be cool to see Tavares get booed for notching his 1,000th point against the team he played most of his career for. He needs two points to hit that plateau.  I expect that Martin Jones will get his first start with the Maple Leafs in one of those games.  

The Maple Leafs got mixed news on Joseph Woll. His injury was diagnosed as a High Ankle Strain and his prognosis is being talked about in weeks as opposed to months. In researching the injury, the healing time can be anywhere from six to twelve weeks. Toronto has placed Woll on the IR as opposed to the LTIR. That means that Woll’s salary, which is just $767,000 counts against the cap. That also means there are no restrictions on when they can bring him back. 

If he were to be placed on LTIR Woll would have been forced to have missed 10 games and 24 days. Liljegren suffered a High Ankle Strain when he was slew-footed and can-opened by Brad Marchand back on November 2nd. He just started skating this week, which puts him in his sixth week.  

Related: Maple Leafs Biggest Surprise This Season: Noah Gregor