By Stan Smith
The Toronto Maple Leafs Lost 3-2 to the Carolina Hurricanes on the second night of back-to-back games for the Maple Leafs on Saturday night. With me getting this out late, I will talk more about the aftermath of the Carolina game than the game itself.
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The Bad
The Maple Leafs are 1-4-1 in their last six games. That translates to 3 out of a possible 12 points or a 0.250% Winning Percentage. In those six games, they have averaged 3.00 Goals For and 4.67 Goals Against.
At the start of this stretch of games, the Maple Leafs were tied for second in the Atlantic Division with the Florida Panthers. Each team had 38 points and the Maple Leafs had two games in hand over Florida. They were five points behind the Boston Bruins with one game in hand. Toronto was four points up on the fourth-place Detroit Red Wings with two games in hand over them.
The Maple Leafs are now nine points behind the Bruins with a game in hand, and five points behind the Panthers with two games in hand. After winning four of their last six games the Tampa Bay Lightning have passed the Red Wings in the standings and are tied for third with the Maple Leafs. Toronto does hold four games in hand over Tampa.
Individually John Tavares is minus-8 in plus-minus over those six games. Tyler Bertuzzi is minus-6. Morgan Rielly is minus-5. William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Bobby McMann and Simon Benoit are all minus -4.
The Good
At five-on-five, except for the 9-3 blowout by the Buffalo Sabres, the Maple Leafs have been playing well defensively. In five of the six games, they have averaged just six High-Danger-Scoring-Chances Against while generating an average of just under eleven High-Danger-Scoring-Chances For themselves. In those five games, they have averaged just 1.74 Expected Goals Against. For a team that has been struggling defensively this season, there are signs they are tightening up defensively five-on-five.
Matthews has scored six goals and added three assists for a total of nine points in the last six games. Nylander has eight points and Rielly has six points. Timothy Liljegren has a goal and four assists for five points while averaging over 21 minutes per game. He is beginning to look like a top-four defenseman. While Matthews Knies has only one point in the six games, a goal, he is plus-4 in plus-minus.
Despite only winning one of his last four starts, Martin Jones has stopped 109 of the 119 shots he has faced giving him a 0.916 Save Percentage. His Goals-Against-Average in those four starts is 2.56 GAA.
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The Ugly
In the two starts that Ilya Samsonov had in the last six games he has given up 11 goals on 29 shots in just over 90 minutes of action. In his last two appearances, Samsonov’s Goals-Against-Average is higher than his Save Percentage. His Save Percentage was 0.725 and his Goals-Against-Average was 7.27.
As most Maple Leafs fans have heard by now Samsonov’s struggles have prompted the Maple Leafs to place Samsonov on waivers. This comes just six months and fifteen games played after Samsonov inked an arbitrator awarded a one-year $3.55 million contract. The move begs the question will this just be a conditioning stint and time to allow Samsonov to rediscover his game or is it the last time we will see Samsonov in a Maple Leafs uniform?
What’s Next?
The reciprocal move to Samsonov being placed on waivers was the call-up today of 6-foot-7, 22-year-old Dennis Hildeby. Hildeby has a 7-5-3 record with a 0.919 Save Percentage and 2.20 Goals-Against-Average in 15 appearances with the Toronto Marlies this season. Hildeby’s so-so-won/lost record is due more to a lack of scoring support in his starts. Hildeby has two shutouts and has allowed two or fewer goals in eight of his 15 starts. He has allowed four goals in regulation in just one game this season.
The Maple Leafs head out on a three-game West Coast road trip. They play the Los Angeles Kings and the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday and Wednesday in back-to-back games. Hildeby should get one of those two starts. They then get a two-day break before visiting the San Jose Sharks on Saturday before turning home. They then take on the Sharks again the following Tuesday in a rare home-and-home with a West Coast team.
For the first time in seven seasons, the Maple Leafs enter the new year in danger of falling out of a playoff spot. If they were to fall a point behind the Lightning, with whom they are presently tied, the New York Islanders would jump ahead of them for the first Wild Card spot because they have two more points than Toronto. The Maple Leafs are just one point ahead of the Washington Capitals, the New Jersey Devils, and the Pittsburgh Penguins for the last Wild Card spot in the East.
Toronto does have games in hand over all of those teams except the Capitals. But, they need to get things straightened out in a hurry. If they have the same record in the next six games as they did in their last six they will be on the outside looking in at a playoff spot.
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