By Stan Smith

The Toronto Maple Leafs failed to end their series with the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games, losing 4-2 in Toronto. The series now moves to Florida for game six. 

The Good

The Maple Leafs started the game well, going up 1-0 on a goal by Morgan Rielly from Matthews Knies and John Tavares at 5:46 of the first period. 

They then made a game of it when Auston Matthews scored from Tavares and Mitch Marner with Ilya Samsonov pulled for an extra attacker with 3:34 left in the third period to make the score 3-2 Tampa.  

The Bad

It wasn’t enough though, as the Maple Leafs failed to get anything else past Andrei Vasilevskiy in the 50 minutes and 40 seconds between their two goals, or in the three and half minutes following their second goal. 

In just 26 seconds after the Maple Leafs took the lead 1-0 in the first period, Justin Holl got caught on a bad pinch. He also had the stick knocked out of his hands, which took him out of the play. Then Alex Kerfoot let Brandon Hagel get behind him and Noel Acciari let Anthony Cirelli get away from him when he had him covered in front of the Maple Leafs’ net. Nick Perbix got the puck to Hagel. Maple Leafs’ goalie Ilya Samsonov stopped the first chance, but Cirelli scored on the rebound.

Tampa went up 2-1 in the second period when Holl got turned around the wrong way. That allowed Michael Eyssimont to walk in on Samsonov alone. It was from an almost impossible angle; and, usually, the shooter should not have scored. However. Samsonov seemed to get fooled and handcuffed on the shot. 

With all the great saves Samsonov has made in this series, that was one shot he had to stop. He didn’t.

Related: MAPLE LEAFS CLOSE TO EXORCISING PLAYOFF DEMONS: CAN THEY? 

The Ugly

In Game 7 against the Lightning last season, the Maple Leafs shut down all of Tampa’s top guns. It was fourth-liner Nick Paul who did them in, scoring both goals in a Lightning 2-1 win. Once again Paul put the nail in the Maple Leafs’ coffin in this game. His goal made the score 3-1 with just over nine minutes to go in the game. 

On this goal it was Russ Colton beating everyone to a Lightning dump-in in the Toronto zone. He then passed the puck out front of the Maple Leafs’ goal. Zach Aston-Reese attempted to kick the puck up to Sam Lafferty but instead put it right on Paul’s stick. ZAR then blocked Paul’s first shot, but the puck rebounded right back to Paul. 

Aston-Reese attempted to get his stick on Paul’s to prevent him from doing anything with the rebound.  Unfortunately for the Maple Leafs, his stick broke. Samsonov, who went down to stop Paul’s first shot attempt was in no position to stop his second chance. 

At that point in the game, it was like “Deja Vu all over again.” Paul, who hadn’t scored in his 30 previous games, became once again the hero for the Lightning.

As I did state in the “Good,” Matthews did score from Tavares and Marner to get the Maple Leafs within one. However, it was too little too late. 

This marked the 10th game in which the Maple Leafs had a chance to finish a first-round series in the past seven seasons and they have yet to win, instead going oh for ten. 

What’s Next?

After blowing a chance to do this the easy way (as well as making me miss my prediction they would win in five games), the Maple Leafs are now getting into scary territory. They will have to do this the hard way. They have given the Lightning life. Now they will have to go into Tampa and win another one on the road. 

Will Sam Lafferty Sit Out Game 6?

After being a healthy scratch following his return from a three-game suspension, I expect Michael Bunting to return for the next game. I am going to predict he will replace Sam Lafferty. Lafferty’s underlying numbers were the worst on the team in this game. He only played 6:51. 

According to Naturalstattrick.com at five-on-five, Lafferty was on the ice for one Shot Attempt For and 12 Against, zero Shots For and five against, zero Goals For and two Against, and zero Scoring Chances For and five Against. He also had an Expected-Goals For of zero.

In the series, Lafferty has a team-worse 28% Scoring-Chances For and an Expected Goals For of 36%.  Aston-Reese’s numbers aren’t much better. However, Aston-Reese is more physical and has played solid defensive hockey the whole season for the Maple Leafs. 

While I am not counting out the chance it could be Aston-Reese sitting, I think the most likely candidate is Lafferty. Make no mistake though, Bunting is playing the next game. 

There also could be the possibility that both Lafferty and Aston-Reese sit, and Keefe goes with eleven forwards and seven defensemen I don’t think he will, but he might. 

Related: Revisiting Maple Leafs Choice Not to Sign Corey Perry

Will Justin Holl Sit?

Holl has been a key part of the Maple Leafs’ penalty killing and has played some of his best hockey in this series. However, coach Keefe can’t be happy with the two mistakes Holl made in the game. Both ended up in the Toronto net. I wonder if we might see either Timothy Liljegren or Erik Gustafsson, or both of them replace Holl in game six.  

After being a healthy scratch following his return from a three-game suspension I fully expect Michael Bunting to return for the next game.  I am going to predict he will replace Sam Lafferty. Lafferty’s underlying numbers were the worst on the team in this game. He only played 6:51.  According to Naturalstattrick.com at five-on-five, he was on the ice for 1 Shot Attempt For and 12 Against, zero Shots For and five against, zero Goals For and two Against, and zero Scoring Chances For and five Against.  He also had an Expected Goals For of zero.

In the series, Lafferty has a team-worse 28% Scoring Chances For and an Expected Goals For of 36%.  Zach Aston-Reese’s numbers aren’t much better but Aston-Reese is more physical and has played solid defensive hockey the whole season for the Maple Leafs. While I am not counting out the chance it could be Aston-Reese sitting I think the most likely candidate is Lafferty. Make no mistake though, Bunting is playing the next game. 

Michael Bunting and Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs

There also could be the possibility that both Lafferty and Aston-Reese sit, and Keefe goes with eleven forwards and seven defensemen  I don’t think he will, but he might. 

While Holl has been a key part of the Maple Leafs’ penalty killing and has played some of his best hockey in this series, Sheldon Keefe can’t be happy with the two mistakes Holl made in the game that ended up in the Toronto net. I wonder if we might see either Timothy Liljegren or Erik Gustafsson, or both of them replace Holl in game six.  

Getting Into Scary Territory

After blowing a chance to do this the easy way (as well as making me miss my prediction they would win in five games) the Maple Leafs are now getting into scary territory and will have to do this the hard way.  They have given the Lightning life.  They will have to go into Tampa and win another one on the road. 

While this may not be an absolute must-win game, it is as close as it gets to it.  There is no way the Maple Leafs want this to go seven even if the last game is in Toronto.  

Related: Three Key Takeaways from Maple Leafs’ 4-2 Loss to the Lightning

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